NEXT

The four other essays listed on PAGE TWO, hints, happiness, science, and troubles present my ideas on these topics. More views are described in my book THINGS CERTAIN AND UNCERTAIN. The central notion in that book is that societies must have certain components to survive: air, water, food, space, shelter--exercise, reproduction, care of children, language, technologies, and codes of behavior. Some arguments for this set of imperatives are given on pages 76 and 81 of "THINGS".

If you click on HINTS you will get some practical advice for living. The HAPPINESS essay warns that hedonism should not be our primary goal in life. SCIENCE suggests that manifold wonders discovered by disciplined scientists in recent times should produce in us an attitude of reverence. My last article TROUBLES attempts to define the Christian life.

My hope in this paper is to put together a current worldwiew, anticipating the problems to be expected in the NEXT century. By looking at the whole picture you can decide if my views, or views contrary to them, offer the best understanding of likely future events--many of which are looming on the horizon.

Certain problems are clearly visible for Century 21 as they are already with us. Summarizing the threats to the Earth and its inhabitants we must list: environmental pollution of air and water, ethnic wars and hatreds, overpopulation, health, hunger, unemployment, deterioration of families, illiteracy, nuclear war, and natural disasters. There are other major crises and more yet unforeseen.

One major problem is that we can't decide on the best institutions for governing the world or nations. The United Nations is about the only governing body that considers global problems. Yet it is weak and poorly funded. The tools that governments and private agencies used to alleviate or solve societies' problems are not well agreed upon or efficacious. In the 1990s we put great faith in democracy and capitalism but socialism, communism and dictatorships are active contenders. Ideological and religious systems, inherent in these organizational methods, play important roles. Regions such as Africa and Asia have different troubles than Europe and the United States, but world problems are fast interlocking.

We have plenty of topics to speculate about. Certainly most governments and individual agencies and people will strive to solve these problems or to avoid the dangers obvious in this list of "future events". Perhaps by thinking about these things and talking them over we can better predict their dimensions and point to wise actions that can be taken to avert disasters.

WORLD GOVERNMENTS

Is there a world consensus that tends to agree on a taxonomy of dangers that confront nations and civilizations? We live in an age where electronic communication spreads news of events rapidly. So perhaps the threats are recognized by most governments. There are summits on environmental questions and heads of state confer on most issues. But programs and concerted efforts to steer states through the evident dangers are few.

As mentioned already the United Nations seems to be about the only agency with world vision. It addresses on a global basis problems of wars, diseases, hunger, and environment. World trade attracts the most attention of national governments and international banks and corporations. Regional consortiums are formed to facilitate trade and cooperation across borders. Common Markets include EU (European Economic Community), CARICOM (Caribbean Community and Common Market), ASEAN (Assoc. of Southeast Asian Nations), OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, NAFTA, (North American Free Trade Agreement) and many others. Many of these organizations address other than trade issues and tariffs but the primary emphasis is usually about economic matters. And some international corporations and banks seem to operate outside the control or jurisdiction of national governments or the UN. The driving consideration in the negotiations and agreements treated by trade organizations and corporations is finance. Subjects like environmental impact, world poverty and health, sustainablity of resources are fringe topics. However the United Nations has a more humanitarian scope. The agency titles reflect a broad interest in people: the WHO (World Health), UNESCO (Education, Scientific, and Cultural Organization), FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) as well as World Bank (for Reconstruction and Development) and UNHRC for Refugees.

The political forces determining laws and programs in national governments are too limiting to treat global issues adequately. The capitalistic democracies like the United States often act on pressures from special interests. "Give us less government and lower taxes", is the popular cry from voters who want personal freedom and more money. Economic interests dominate. Large corporations hire lobbyist and contribute liberally to election campaigns to influence government policies. Given the prevailing political climate, Congress declines to support international programs to reduce carbon dioxide proliferation and pollution or to fulfill obligations to the UN. As the only superpower we reluctantly take part in peace keeping and anti-famine relief.

There are people who maintain that private efforts rather than governmental programs offer the best safeguards against the perceived dangers. Private peace and environmental organizations and activists are dedicated to fighting environmental degradation. There are societies formed to combat most every disease and abuses such as drug addictions and alcoholism. Environmental associations such as Green Peace campaign for the protection of animal and fish wildlife and for reduced pollution of the atmosphere and water. Some religious groups such as the Quakers take part in Earth Day and Walks against Hunger and other protest movements against poverty, hunger, disease and excessive consumption of energy and other natural resources. Some of these organizations enter into governmental politics. The objective of most of these private groups is to arouse public awareness and to raise money for political action. It is still governments and agency programs that have the power and hold the most promise for making beneficial changes.

THE ROOT OF THE PROBLEM

The root of all the threats is in human behavior. Are we willing to limit the per capita consumption of the earth's resources? Can we bridle our hatred of people of different races and languages? Will we wisely develop science and technology to give us comfortable living without ruining our environment? Can we educate our children so they can be productive in the agricultures, economies and technologies that are needed to sustain the anticipated large populations? Will people be cooperative, honest, polite, and caring--in a congested world inhabited by large numbers of people living in limited areas? How do you modify human behavior? Will there be wise leaders and governments and will people obey the laws and directions they give?

To get even tentative answers to this set of questions we must look at history and find models where societies have succeeded in solving similar problems. Some of the oldest surviving civilizations are in the far-east. There are model societies and examples of problem solving there that we should study. Some countries in Europe have dealt with adversity remarkably well. Wars tend to teach lessons to the defeated nations better than to the victors!

Japanese society and government has succeeded against formidable odds. Devastated by World War II, and no doubt aided by American clemency, Japan has become a prosperous nation. As a people the Japanese accepted demilitarization and forsook their long established traditions of war. They found birth control methods that controlled overpopulation. They developed international sources of food, timber, and petroleum. They educated excellent and disciplined engineers and scientists who mastered the latest technologies. Their industries marketed highly competitive automobiles and electronic and machine tools. They have an excellent merchant fleet. Today they struggle with problems of banks, stock markets, market competition, and corruption in industry and politics. They are coping with these problems rampant in today's world as well as most other nations.

It is instructive to observe how India has progressed. Here ethnic and religious prejudices are widespread. Grave conflicts between Moslems and Hindus caused formation of separate states. Poverty is often extreme. But the English left a legacy of respect for law and government (which the English got from the Romans?). There is also as in Japan a strong tradition of scholarship and willingness to learn new technology. India is really a micro-world exhibiting in bold relief the problems that the whole globe must face in the next century. India and Pakistan are functional and competitive in world markets. Explosive problems persist but India's government and people have been able to deal with the difficulties. The cultural values that guide families and define justice have enabled India to play a dignified role in the modern world.

China is the big one to watch. Like Japan and India it is rooted in a civilization that has continued for thousands of years. Population pressure is one of the difficult problems. Poverty and hunger are always a threat. As in both India and Japan, the Chinese government is wise enough to maintain and subsidize a large rural and farming population. It tries to extract the greatest benefits from the Communist and Capitalist ideologies. The Chinese have strong work-ethics, discipline, and family solidarity. Confucianism is more philosophy than religion and undergirds their tradition of scholarship. Will China control its population, feed its people, compete in modern technology, eliminate corruption and human rights abuses? Certainly the last decades have suggested that the Chinese are capable of solving their problems. China is another microcosm of our earth with exaggerated examples of problems in inter-ethnic relations, population control, and poverty. Considering what happened in Eastern Europe with the collapse of communism perhaps China needs a strong government. What will China be like in 2099? For them is will be just another millennium and China may then resemble its civilization of 2100 BC!

Most of the countries of Europe are also success stories today. Great Britain, Germany, the Scandinavian countries, Italy, France, and the others all have overcome adversities. They enjoy clean streets, low per-capita crime, with relatively high standards of living. Their cities do not often have big slum areas and other zones of poverty are seldom seen. The people are mostly literate and well educated. They have preserved a farm population and have in general cleaned up the air and rivers from pollution. Each country draws on a rich cultural tradition. In most countries people obey laws and respect governments although their are some exceptions. Europe has exported some very good scientists; and the USA has engaged many in universities and industrial research.

There are many ethnic and minority problems in Europe. Unemployment is high in many countries. The pains of ethnic conflict are evident but governments try to find answers to these cultural troubles. Experiments in socialism, democracy, and capitalism abound in Europe. We can learn by observing.

We might be judgmental too of other nations not mentioned so far. In the Southern Hemisphere there are many nations with success stories as well. We might consider the different cultural and philosophical troubles that Latin, Moslem, and African civilizations have inherited. In some countries there is widespread bribery and disrespect for law. Family allegiances and tribalism are often burdens on governments. Intolerant religions often prevent nations from accepting other societies. But we can learn from all nations if we will discard our own bigotry.

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

"America, the only classless, egalitarian democracy history has ever known, infinitely daring, almost recklessly inventive, garnering the brains of the world to complete the humanist and scientific ambitions of the past." by Sean O'Faolain

The USA is certainly a success story. As the world's only superpower with very high standards of living, even luxury we can't be doing everything wrong. But when I peer into the future there are things that bother me. In discussing other countries and cultures I think it is the prevailing philosophies and national character that are the most important factors in determining future success and even survival. The ideas and values of a culture shape its institutions and its ideological systems of government and education.

American ideals and institutions were largely shaped by the Christian Church and political philosophies current in Europe in the 1700s. Most all the early American colleges and universities were started by churches. The philosophies taught in the 18th and 19th centuries were those of Descartes, Pascal and Hegel and the Greek and Roman masters. Educated men and women studied Latin and Greek and they read Aristotle, Horace, Virgil and Seneca. They did not use these languages often in their work but the hard discipline of learning languages taught them how to master any discipline. The world views held by educated leaders, and through them by most thoughtful people in America at that time, were derived from these Classic writings and from Christian perspectives. People believed that their consciences were voices from God directing their ethical conduct. Punishment for evil acts was expected and natural. God was father-like and fathers punished their children for disobedience.

With the 20th Century came the enlightenment and American philosophical thought became largely atheistic following the teachings of Nietzsche, Freud, and others. These ideas also dominated European thought and influenced Europe's cultural development. But in the United States American philosophers, especially William James and John Dewey, caused profound changes in educational beliefs and practices. The arguments used were very rational, persuasive, and stemmed from the highest motives. Children must develop self-esteem and be allowed to "do their thing" even if their actions were destructive or impertinent. Learning should be pleasant and not a drudge. Low grades in school or reprimands should not be permitted to discourage the child and cause attitudes of depression or remorse.

The results of Dewey's psychological and philosophical concepts of rearing children have been mixed. The drive of ego and self-esteem has propelled many young people to higher achievement consistent with their feelings of superiority and self-importance. However, these people can be quite insufferable socially and their higher positions in business or colleges may be more due to "push" than merit. As children they are wild and unruly making it extremely hard for mothers and nannies to care for them. Unfortunately the lack of discipline and obedience has made it difficult to teach these young people mathematics, science, and languages. Memorizing the multiplication tables or poetry is considered too burdensome. The people produced by modern education are not good employees as they don't take orders but expect rapid advancements. They find life in the army or other armed forces to be repressive. Manual work for this generation is demeaning. Children do not learn to do chores at home anymore and expect allowances. Selfishness is a primary cause for divorce, making those with modern education poor candidates for marriage. And the unconstrained children cause disruption of domestic life, another cause for divorce. The social consequences of modern education of children have been disastrous.

Children brought up in this atmosphere of freedom of choice and praise from parents and teachers are not necessarily happy. The choices they make without experience or guidance often lead them into trouble. The entertainment world of TV and movies features lives of luxury and violence. It is argued that not spanking children will make them less prone to violence. However the teachings of television lead many young people into crime and violence. Those attracted to sports do learn discipline and get physical exercise, but games are not an adequate substitute for productive work. Many adolescents are morose and suicidal when they realize they are helpless and useless--not able to write well or find jobs requiring math or science. Idleness often leads to alcohol and drug abuse. And they do not make friends easily because of their conceited and impolite behavior.

The quote that follows was sent to me by my brother Dr. Ivan Sletten who is a psychiatrist. It describes the troubles with modern psychology in educating (children better than I have in this paper). It was written by a psychologist, Dr. John Rosemond.

SELF-RESPECT IS RICHER QUALITY THAN SELF-ESTEEM

From the St. Paul Pioneer Press - Wednesday, February 5, 1997

John Rosemond, Knight-Ridder News Service

Q. During a recent talk in Albuquerque, N.M., you talked about self-esteem and self-respect. I thought at first that you were using the terms interchangeably, but later I realized you weren't. What is the difference as applied to children?

A. The answer to your question begins some 30 years ago, when helping professionals began promoting what they termed "high self-esteem" as the be-all, end-all of good mental health. In short order, the "self-esteem movement" developed, the goal of which was to spread this psychological good news far and wide. To assist in this crusade, one was to think only positive thoughts and say only positive things about oneself and others.

Sound silly? It was, although it didn't sound silly at all to a much younger John Rosemond and most of my generation. We "boomers" were convinced self-esteem was going to save the world. Thirty years later, I'm equally convinced - irrespective of what its gurus might say - that the self-esteem movement has contributed to a host of social problems.

The pursuit of self-esteem became an excuse to "do your own thing" -regardless of whether or not the "thing" in question was anti-social - and quickly mutated into self-worship.

Self-respect is gained not by being told how wonderful you are, but by developing respect for others. This idea - that giving respect is a precondition of getting respect (and developing self-respect) - is consonant with the Golden

Rule: Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.

The journey toward self-respect begins with the child developing respect for his or her parents. Responsibility for putting, and keeping, this process in motion lies with parents who are effective at turning the child into a disciple, one who will follow their lead.

These parents know where they stand and where they want the child to stand. They communicate their expectations calmly and unapologetically and discipline justly. As a consequence, the child looks up to his parents. He pays attention to them and does (for the most part) what he is told.

As this "gifted" child grows, the respect he has developed for his parents transfers to other authority figures, then to peers, and so on until it eventually, hopefully, encompasses one's "fellow man."

Under optimal circumstances, this giving of respect comes full-circle sometime during late adolescence or early adulthood, and self-respect begins to mature. It is at this point, that one becomes a "pilgrim" - one who is on the "high

road," moving ever so slowly toward spiritual fulfillment.

The difference between self-esteem and self-respect is night and day. A person with "high self-esteem" thinks highly of himself. A person growing in self-respect understands that he is an imperfect being who was given the gift of life in order to serve. A person with high self-esteem thinks he is deserving: therefore, he is ungrateful. A person growing in self-respect thinks he is undeserving: therefore, he is grateful.

It is significant to note that ever since educators and parents were persuaded that their primary goal should be that of making children feel good about themselves, indicators of positive mental health in America's children have been in a state of decline.

It's as if a trap door opened up under our children some 30 years ago, and they've been in a state of free-fall ever since. (End of quote and insert.)

_______________________________________________________________

John Rosemond is a family psychologist in North Carolina. Questions of general interest may be sent to him at P.O. Box 4124, Gastonia, NC 28054.

These pampered elite Americans are a bit like the noble class of England in the Middle-ages. These nobles had the land and the money with a servant class to do the work. They loved to hunt - fish - fight - and hold banquets. Many of them could not read or write as those activities were beneath the dignity of their roles as knights and ladies in courts. In the Wars of Roses (1455-1485) the nobles almost exterminated each other and feudalism was then largely ended. The despised poor people and the Protestant laity and clergy finally dislodged these noble lords from political power. Much later in the 1650s Oliver Cromwell a Puritan farmer was a leader in the remolding of English society toward rule by a more democratic government. Read English history.

There is another popular prejudice current in the thinking of many Americans that I think will have serious consequences. Perhaps due to the cold war which characterized communism as unmitigated evil or because Americans have enjoyed a long period of prosperity and affluence, we tend to view capitalism as a heaven-sent organizing principle. Government is bad and should be replaced by private businesses and corporations. Capitalism is a sacred American icon perhaps venerated more by rich than by poor people.

Corporations have almost destroyed the small farms in the United States. Most of the small retail businesses also have been subsumed by the large chain stores and other conglomerates. Many corporations have found ways to avoid paying taxes-often by operating from foreign countries. Much manufacturing by big companies is done in Mexico or in Far-eastern countries where labor is cheaper than in the United States. Capital, money, is very portable and moves where profits from its investment is greatest. Profits--bottom lines--are more important than employees' welfare. Down-sizing of work force is a proven way to enhance corporate profits through firing employees. Gigantic salaries are paid to the few who run the corporations. Earnings are distributed sparingly to stockholders who provide capital from savings. Wholesale merging reflects the benefits of corporation size and of monopolistic power. Laws have been passed decades ago to discourage monopolies. But corporation lawyers and lobbyists have been able to weaken this kind of government supervision. Growth is the goal of most corporations. Expansions often lead to more employment and new plants are generally welcomed by communities and governments. Corporate growth often results in competitions that destroy rival businesses. Growth usually means more consumption of raw materials and natural resources. Sustainablity and environmental impact are often neglected although here again government tries to intervene.

Capitalism as an organizing principle for society is unjust. It produces wealth and consumer products efficiently but it does not distribute the wealth equitably. The system can victimize the workers and people without capital. People working in corporations are another commodity to be obtained as cheaply as possible. Without government or charity there is no support net for the unemployed and hungry. Many Americans buy stocks owned by corporations and some are able to achieve sizable incomes from this blessing of capitalism. Some people win fortunes in lotteries and casinos. Those with money supposedly deserve to become richer. Gambling has its fascinations. But such activities are not equivalent to working. Little "goods"--potatoes, shoes or house-cleaning--are produced from the time and efforts spent searching stock market quotations and talking to brokers. There are also tragic disappointments and losses. For some people all gambling is a vice. Lotteries are really another tax on the poor.

There is another icon before which all of us fall down and worship--democracy. The highest wisdom is that of the majority. Popularity means right. American society that is being educated by newspapers, radio, television, public education in grade and high schools, colleges and universities will always identify the truth and make correct decisions. It is a heresy and crime even to discuss these obvious propositions. But why then did our founding fathers institute so many checks and balances of democratic procedures and establish a judicial system independent of legislative bodies? Why are we encumbered with a truly archaic constitution that reflects old out-worn values? Why don't more people vote in elections? Truly the functioning of our democratic system will have an impact on NEXT--our future.

In the Twentieth Century we have witnessed a significant revolution sometimes known as the Women's Liberation Movement. Feminism has become firmly established in most countries except perhaps in the strict Moslem societies. There is tremendous justice in this liberation movement as previously women had few legal rights and were often abused by males. Productivity benefits to society are easy to count as the abilities of women in many fields tend to equal or surpass those of men. Medicine, business and office work, preaching and teaching are all examples of activities in which women excel.

The only mothers in society are women. Procreation and the survival of humanity depends uniquely on women. Traditionally in most societies women cared for children and kept house by cleaning and preparing food. It is difficult to accomplish these domestic tasks and function as professionals and sub-professionals in the salaried work force. So servants or day-care centers or husbands are engaged in child rearing and house work. Also the public schools with supervised sports and music programs have a part in bringing up children. Television and INTERNET also serve as child tenders. These new child-raising methods have serious defects. The parent's care including the mother's love is often diluted. Children formerly were taught how to work to help parents with tasks in the home. Now with substitute care-takers hired servants do most of the work. Also nannies and surrogate mothers are not equipped or allowed to discipline the children. Also the child-care psychology taught in schools and to parents often produces unruly and destructive children.

The ideas and politics that fostered feminism emanated from the same libertine philosophical principles that generated wild and unrestrained child behavior. According to this philosophy freedom is the answer to social problems. The ideal society has no bosses and few rules. Always delete the word obey.

FUTURES

  Matt: 5:5 "Blessed are the meek; for they shall inherit the earth."

So far in this article I have tried to identify the philosophical foundations of the present era with emphasis on views prevailing in the United States. I assume that the vision and values a people has will determine its future.

The major features of recent history of the world have been a sequence of wars, rapid technological development especially in transportation and communication, abundance of weapons of mass destruction, population growth, improvements in health care and agriculture, new world banks and corporations and expansion of international trade, and the transformation of Asian economies into Western models. These trends will no doubt persist. World temperament has lost faith in wars as means for advancing national interests and domination. But guns--military force--still remain the final court of arbitration between nations and ethnic factions.

Demographics give us perhaps the most reliable clue for future forecasting. Asian, Latins and blacks are out-breeding the white Europeans who now have most of the money and the power to rule the United States. Slowly and without military conquests they are peopling the earth and replacing the descendants of Europeans. They not only have the advantage of procreation power but their children are usually obedient and disciplined and work hard to master the new technologies. It is the cultural superiority of Asian and Latin families that gives them a strategic edge. (The marriage stability and child rearing psychology are somewhat different in the countries in Europe than in the United States. These nations encourage their farm populations who can produce food and fiber in emergencies and maintain a farm population able to perform manual labor.)

The demise of the United States may come with only a whimper.

A large servant class of Latins, Asians, and blacks will do all the house work, construction and maintenance, and the farm work. Care-taking of children and elderly will also be done by these folks. Wages will fall for these workers but "professional" jobs in education, banking, law, churches, advertising and sales will be done by the higher paid and wasteful white consumers. The performers in sports and entertainment will come mainly from the working classes. Engineers and scientists will continue to come from Europe and Asia. The noble, pampered elite produced by the educational system and the capital distribution system will go to tropical islands to die. The living people with darker skins will take over the seats of power and perhaps make the same mistakes and bring in some new wave of servants! Their fate as ours will depend on their spiritual and philosophical choices.

Or the downfall of America may come with a bang. China will soon be a superpower too. Nuclear bombs may be exploded in Washington and New York by terrorists from nations we have provoked. The servant classes we are developing may revolt. Such violent terminations can not be ruled out. Empires rise and fall. But a gradual transition for the United States into a nation inhabited by peoples of Asian and Latino extraction with a cultural philosophy that better fosters family life seems the most probable change.

The United States has a large population of black citizens that is poorly integrated into either the rich educated society or the new working class of immigrants. The black women work in offices and sometimes in servant jobs in homes and restaurants. The men have no work nor other roles in society. Nevertheless, some blacks, both male and female, have made it successfully in the competitive, hostile white world.

Right-wing politicians allege that it was (is) the government welfare system that ruined the black families. Yes, the welfare safety net became a way of life for generations. Also racial prejudice and hatred have not been eradicated by governments or the churches.

But the most promising social result of recent years is that the armed forces have been successful in integrating blacks and white service men. The American military services have studied the social problems of blacks carefully and found workable solutions. We have stronger armed forces from the important contributions of blacks. Government action is often needed to solve social problems.

NEW PHILOSOPHY?

To avert the kind of futures that are suggested to be the likely consequences of our national attitudes and philosophies perhaps these attitudes can be changed. We might look to the colleges and universities to develop ideas and societal views that might better equip the children who will be living as adults in the next century. This is unlikely to happen. College psychology and philosophy departments are bankrupt. The confusion and controversies of modern American philosophers are well documented in the book The Rediscovery of the Mind, by John R. Searle, Professor of Mind and Language, University of California, Berkeley. The departments of Psychology and Education are dominated by orthodoxies of John Dewey and Deconstructionalism. Colleges claim to be unprejudiced and tolerant of ideas but they censor or forbid all Christian teachings. Universities have become big businesses. They compete for students, and parents are willing to pay them exorbitant tuition. They vie for and obtain many government research grants and subsidies. It is the University that confers nobility on the egotistical graduates of the public school. In this the high schools and colleges cooperate beautifully in reinforcing the newly (and often poorly) educated graduates' opinions of their greatness and qualifications for jobs with high salaries.

But it is not impossible that colleges will produce courageous leadership that recognizes the folly of present educational methods and the philosophical chaos. More likely voices may come from the press and be published in obscure journals that may eventually have an impact. (My home page is very obscure!) We must not give up hope about university leadership which is in the most strategic position to mold national philosophy. The problems of American education could be solved by brave, wise professors.

It might be expected that better philosophical foundations might come from the clergy of Christian churches. Unfortunately the main-line churches have often agreed with the libertine doctrines of secular educators. Instead of preaching guides for rearing children and family organization from the Bible teachings most church leaders see no need to emphasize obedience and discipline. Many churches preach feminism and spend much time rewriting hymnals and scriptures to correct the non-inclusive language. However, some churches have established grade schools where the teachings of Jesus are permitted to be taught. These churches are often of the evangelical or Pentecostal denominations although many Roman Catholic parochial schools are still in operation.

CHRISTIANITY IN RELATION TO PUBLIC EDUCATION

There are some important differences between the teachings of most modern educators and those of the Bible. (1) As stated in Luther's catechism, "We are by nature sinful..." All people are told to repent of their sins. Pride is one of the seven deadly sins. God punishes sin as a father punishes his children. But current educational philosophy holds that people and children are inherently good. Punishments make children despondent and stifle their learning which is best achieved through unconstrained adventures. (2) The Bible teaches love to neighbors and charity to the poor. Community and sharing are the first obligations of humanity. Both the old and new Testaments warn against cheating and denigrating the poor. But modern emphasis is on competition and winning. Competition is the cornerstone principle for business. This "virtue" is inculcated in schools to enable students to succeed and become rich. (3) Money and love of it is generally portrayed as evil, especially in the New Testament. This caution about the deceitfulness of riches is repeated many times. But as Mark Twain is quoted as saying, "The lack (not love) of money is the root of all evil" has become the bottom-line philosophy of most Americans. Often teachers attempt to reconcile and minimize the differences in values between American schools and religious teachings. These compromises have seriously damaged the moral fabric of our nation.

The Christian way teaches love to neighbors and love to God.

Children are to love, honor, and obey their parents who teach them to include God in this special set of persons. This is an emotional support system. The Christian, and most religious persons, walks and prays to God from early youth seeking help and instructions. This instantly available help and guidance is particularly appreciated in times of trouble and sickness. Unlike conversations with natural fathers and mothers this prayer dialogue has profound wisdom and eternal dimensions. But modern Freudian psychology rejects this manner of child upbringing as superstition. Better to trust in luck and signs of the Zodiac. And as some bumper stickers say, "Question all authority."

In rural America up until recently mothers with many children had to bake bread, tend fires, and do chores outside the house. Children had to be taught to obey in order for the mother to do other work besides caring for them. "No" meant no!!, "you can not touch that lamp or stove!" Disobedience meant that when father came home you would have a trip to the woodshed with the razor strap. The spankings did not injure the child physically but convinced him or her that it was much better to obey. School teachers used similar methods to maintain order. Children learned to read, write, and to memorize arithmetic and poems.

They were good workers on farms or factories. They were good students in colleges when permitted to attend. Parents never argued with their children. Words are not effective tools for discipline. However love and care were extremely abundant in these homes.

The Chippewa Indian mothers had to impose even stricter discipline. Because they had to hunt and harvest wild rice they taught their children not to cry. Crying would frighten game animals and interrupt work. This they accomplished by training when the child was very young. Papooses were carried by mothers with back packs. Mothers were very attentive with care and feeding. (I have seen these babies lying on the ground at the ends of crop rows where the Indian mothers were picking beans or cucumbers.)

Such primative, brutal treatment of children, you will say. But by looking at other cultural and especially the Oriental societies we see that children can be cared for in modes that free their parents for other work.

Historical study will reveal that in early American societies there were many children pampered by parents. Mothers with only one or a few children would often "spoil" them. These children often believed that they were little kings or queens as their parents perceived them to be. They were sometimes unbearable socially; but lessons of life, in peer groups, and in the work world often "reformed" their opinions of themselves. Often these children made unusually fine contributions as adults. And many vulgar and ignorant people were reared in the conventional and strict way I have just described. Most humans are resilient and intelligent; they can often recover from poor parenting and education. But we should not build false and dangerous doctrines in educational psychology that weaken the moral strength of our nation.

ANSWERS?

Question: Will the American forms of democracy function and serve us well in the next Century?

Democracy is functioning in most countries of the world. It is needed to provide non-violent replacement of rulers and government parties. Democracy also provides a voice in government for the poor people who are the most numerous voters. However, the weaknesses of democracy in the United States are: (1) a wide spread opinion that government is evil and not to be trusted. For this and other reasons many people do not vote. (2) Many of American workers are immigrants who can't vote. Immigration policies make it very difficult to become American citizens. (3) Campaign contributions by wealthy corporations and lobbyists representing moneyed interests control much legislation, especially in matters of taxation and welfare programs. The big tobacco companies has strong support in Congress and continue to sell carcinogens to our children and especially Third World peoples. Why are we one of the few major powers that refuse to endorse a ban on land mines? These are dangerous trends. Government will continue to transform the USA into a society ruled by a small minority of very rich people with the working classes disenfranchised and in poverty. Corporate control of hospitals and health insurance will continue to deprive much of the population of adequate health care. Infant mortality will continue to rise and the social security Medicare programs may go bankrupt.

Question: Will the education system in the United States equip our young people to perform well in the technologies and commerce of the next century?

The United States has many of the largest and finest universities in the world. Our public schools are open to immigrants and citizens at very low costs. Nearly all our schools have wonderful buildings and large staffs; they gather much tax and tuition support from Americans (and from foreign governments who send children here to be educated in our universities.)

However test scores for American students are often lower than for Asian and European youth in similar studies. American young people often try to avoid the hard sciences and other rigorous programs of study. Many high school graduates can barely read and write. Few white or black Americans study mathematics, physics, or other difficult science programs in our universities. Science departments at graduate school levels are peopled mostly by Oriental and other foreigners. Junior colleges and colleges of business and law are popular with American students. In the technological world of the 21st century will these deficiencies in science education handicap the United States in the industrial and military responsibilities essential to economic prosperity and military survival? The federal government is at this time in the process of closing down many of the research laboratories in the Defense Department. Many years ago most industrial laboratories closed their research labs.

Yet perhaps of more damaging consequences are the personalities sculptured by the educational system. The selfish, arrogant people emerging from the schools are poor risks as parents, marriage partners, and employees.

Question: Will or can the world handle problems of environmental pollution?

The whole world is fast becoming industrialized, meaning more factories and increased energy consumption. The world population is growing rapidly--increasing at a rate of one billion people every 11 years which would double world population by the year 2040, according to International Planned Parenthood Federation. The wealthier Western peoples are the biggest consumers and wasters. National governments try to clean up the exhausts from cars and trucks and smoke discharged from factories and power generating plants. However pollution of the air and oceans is clearly an international problem. The United Nations is making a courageous effort to make all nations establish restrictions on pollution. The UN also has programs to aid in birth control and to curtail the explosive population growth on the planet. On this issue threatening the air and waters of the earth the United States should cooperate with the United Nations and international organizations to bring the planet into stable equilibrium with its natural resources. So far Congress has been slow to endorse the recommendations of the Rio Environmental Conference and some churches have opposed the birth control programs.

Question: What is the likelihood of wars and how might they be avoided?

All of human history is a chronicle of wars. The twentieth century has been very bloody. There is some indication that the larger nations have lost confidence in wars as a means of expansion and domination of neighboring states. Territory acquisition is not considered an attractive method to improve trade or get natural resources--and slaves are not bartered as before. International corporations can exploit resources of other countries--oil, agriculture, labor--without the burden of governing those states. But terrorism and ethnic conflicts continue unabated. The United States has served as a policeman of the world in many conflicts, including the costly war in the Gulf between Iraq and Kuwait and the civil war in the former Yugoslavia. This task should be done by the United Nations. That body must be strengthened and equipped to be the world's peace keeper in the next century. The important emotional and psychological change in the United States and for most other sovereign states is to accept world government and support it.

The causes of terrorism and ethnic wars are also emotional and philosophical. We are depending on softening of hatreds and mental fixations to eliminate such atrocities. We need to examine the roots of these attitudes and see how they relate to religious views. We understand that the slaughter of tourists in Egypt in recent weeks was a result of fanatic Moslem leaders trying to use terror to cause the downfall of the Egyptian government. In Africa the terrible conflicts were based on tribal and family loyalties. Vicious retribution for ancient wrongs fueled the killings. In Africa religious differences probably were not the primary polarizing and vengeance producing emotions. But Christian, Moslem and Jewish religions played an important part in the devastation of Lebanon. Palestinian terrorist attacks on Jews in Jerusalem and the Jewish killings of Moslems in their mosque at prayer have religious overtones. The burning alive of men, women and children of the Branch Davidians by US federal agents certainly had religious implications. How can the world prevent such savagery caused by ethnic and religious differences? The war in Ireland between Roman Catholic and Protestant contenders has continued for centuries. Can there be any solution?

The Oklahoma bombing was an act of terror apparently caused by American hatred and distrust of government. The mind sets for violence and anarchy are a very old facet of our culture. These views are well articulated by spokespersons of the American Rifle Association. Religious views play a small part in American lawless defiance of government.

American young people are preprogrammed for violence and terror. Television and movies have exposed them to every type of atrocity and horror. Most have never read the Ten Commandments and so no moral compunctions should prevent them from participating in terrorism as victims or perpetrators!

FUTURE?

When I studied meteorology we were given some practical advice about forecasting. If you really can't predict tomorrow's weather simply assume it will be the same as the today's weather. Statistically you will be correct about 50 per cent of the time!!

Inertia and persistence operate in all systems.

We wish and expect that life in America will continue with the strong economy, freedoms, and material abundance that most people now enjoy. Jobs are the centerpieces of most lives, and at this time unemployment levels are very low in the US. Many available jobs offer minimum wage salaries, but by moving about the country, better salaries can often be found although in many families both husband and wife often work to pay the bills.

If we look at the economic underpinning we see ourselves as consumers of goods--foods, cars, televisions--many of which are produced in foreign countries. Our jobs are often in the service and information handling industries--advertising, health care, marketing, publishing, legal and insurance businesses-etc. Very large corporations still manufacture cars, computers, and modern apparatus sold in this age of rapid communication and transportation. Many corporations manage the banks, insurance companies, hospitals, newspapers, television networks, chain stores selling endless sorts of products--and these kinds of businesses usually hire Americans. Foreign immigrants often do the farm labor and house cleaning and low paid servant jobs. Many scientists and college professors are also from foreign countries. We see suburbia growing endlessly with new houses (often luxurious) and new office buildings and new churches.

At this moment the world is relatively tranquil. Yes, Saddam Hussein is trying to conceal deadly canister of lethal germs and nuclear weapons. The United Nations is trying to disarm him and the US Army and Air Force are ready to punish him if he refuses inspections. Our Arab allies are critical of the US because of our support for Israel. There are also crises in the security exchange or stock markets in the United States and now especially in the Far East.

But are these things just glitches on the basically peaceful world scene? No-realistically we must realize that the world is in dynamic equilibrium with gigantic force fields--social, religious, economic, and military--that could set the planet reeling. Trade and commerce are among the important engines driving the system. Our world today is truly interdependent. Our food, our clothes, our oil, our electronic instruments are traded in international markets. As urban people our electricity, home heating, telephones, jobs are all very vulnerable and dependent on networks that can be destroyed quickly by wars, domestic violence, or terrorists. We are depending on the corporations to create jobs and to compete in a manner that allows new corporations to emerge and jointly to develop new technologies to satisfy the needs and desires of consumers. These corporations should employ educated and skilled persons giving a path of upward mobility for the good American students and the immigrants.

If the critical assessments I have made about the Mind of America are correct, then our society could polarize into a tiny minority of very rich people running a few very large corporations and all other people will be their servants doing the work of feeding, cleaning, nursing, transporting, farming, marketing and other essential tasks for very small wages. This social order might be maintained by fiscal controls. Consumer goods and the entertainment industry might placate the people for many years. International corporations could impose a similar hegemony on the third world countries. But such an economic and social configuration is unstable. It would breed wars, revolutions. This consummation is extreme and probably won't happen.

So the only reasonable future forecast is for a topsy-turvy world jostled by the social (ethnic and demographic), economic, technological, religious, and ideological forces that now exist. I have candidly pointed out that America is not preparing itself very well for the competitions that will take place. But America will survive and the hardships and pains of the struggles will teach us how to do it. The lessons will be in the realms of education, philosophy, and religion.

CONCLUSION

The factor dominating our national future and fate is our philosophical points-of-view which are best derived from our religion. The teachings of Jesus are the most helpful guides in formulating beneficial world views in all circumstances.

Immediately many people think of a rigid church government such as ruled Massachusetts for more than a hundred years. But, unlike the Puritans, Jesus opposed the Sabbath rules of his day. It was the leaders of the organized religious institutions of his day that had him crucified. So church rule is not from Jesus teachings. Using Christian teachings as guides for regulating states does not suggest theocracy as the model for civil governments. The New Testament repeats many times that Christians should obey all civil authorities but does not advocate taking over civil or military rule.

The Bible contains many guides for living morally in families and communities. People should work and respect working people. Popular disdain for manual labor as proclaimed by wealthy Americans today is clearly proscribed by scriptures. Greediness for money is renounced and poverty is respected.

What are the guidelines for family life and rearing children? Love, chastity, and obedience are emphasized in a dozen passages dealing with relationships between husbands and wives. Should men be the head of the household?--should women?--both together? Is the primary purpose of marriage to bring up children? Perhaps some of the males-are-dominant instructions are interpolations by later Christian churchmen, as suggested by some Bible scholars. The commandment "Honor thy Father and thy Mother" seems like a rule for children dating back to the origin of the Jewish religion. The Bible leaves little doubt that children should be disciplined by parents and respectful to older people.

National religion coupled with ethnic pride is a common cause for wars and persecution. Jesus taught that the Samaritan who was merciful and helpful was the foreign "Good Samaritan". You can find several times when Jesus praised foreigners. Pride and especially pride in race is one of the deadly sins. In our national life we must be guided by the teachings of Jesus and the Old Testament prophets and not by power-seeking religious or political leaders.

It is not necessary to have a crystal ball or be a prophet to forecast many future developments as they are natural consequences of human behavior. Disregarding and breaking the commandments and guidance given in the Bible causes appropriate punishments. Promiscuous sexual relations leads to venereal diseases and to broken families. Children who are not taught to honor parents and authority do not function well in school or at work. Killing and violence lead to war and terrorism. Love of money leads to gambling and stock market disasters. Cheating and bribery destroy governments and most other institutions. One could go on and on just using the 10 Commandments as a reference.

Christians often study the book of Revelation, the Apocalypse, for predictions of the eschatological events when the world comes to an end. The terrible catastrophes--wars, famine, diseases--described in the apocalyptic writings of the Bible have happened many times. Those predictions are all verified and are continuing! The behavior of people at end times described in the scripture* listed below sounds much like the characteristics of modern mankind. The Old Testament prophets said God punished nations for breaking his commandments. But there were times when national repentance resulted in God's mercy. Maybe that is a good recommendation for America.

* 2 Timothy 3:1-7

"You must understand this, that in the last days distressing times will come. For people will be lovers of themselves, lovers of money, boasters, arrogant, abusive, disobedient to their parents, ungrateful, unholy, inhuman, implacable, slanderers, profligates, brutes, haters of good, treacherous, reckless, swollen with conceit, lovers of pleasure rather that lovers of God, holding to the outward form of godliness but denying its power..."

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